On the morning of June 2, Beijing time, the highly anticipated NBA finals will be kicked off. The Nuggets, which is easier to advance, are obviously the more optimistic side. 12 people in the ESPN expert group voted to win the gold nuggets, and only 4 people chose the heat. But the heat has gone all the way and now has “hit the face” countless predictions, and no one dares to underestimate them.
There are many key points in this round of series, focusing on the core stars of jokedge, Murray, Butler and Adebayor, but the role of the players at both ends of attack and defense, some details that can affect the outcome are equally important. Past data and performance cannot explain everything, but it is enough to provide some references.
Adebayor’s attack and defense against yokedge
Adebayor and yokki are in pairs. Adebayor should not only try to make trouble for yokki by defense, but also the output and efficiency of its attacking end are very important. If Adebayor can consume more jokki on the offensive side, it will help the Heat to limit the offensive efficiency of yokki.
The question is, can Adebayor do it? From the last round, Adebayor had a strong back and ate Derek White. The situation was really not optimistic. Adebayor won only 14.9 points in the Eastern finals, only 48.2 percent in field goal percentage.
Adebayor has 83 percent of his shots in the penalty area, but his hit rate in the penalty area is less than 52.2 percent, 44 players have shot 50 times in the penalty area, and Adebayor ranks 33rd in the hit rate. Adebayor has the ability to invest in China, with a hit rate of 49.8 percent in the regular season of 10-16 feet, while the playoff game dropped to 40 percent. In addition, Adebayor hit only 28.6 percent of the 16-point 56 shots, ranking at the bottom.
If Adebayor could not make use of the speed surface basket to force attack, and could not hit more in the block and tear down, yokiqi would be as comfortable as the last round to guard the forbidden area, and the heat would be restricted by the passing of the heat dominated by Adebayor.
Adebayor faced more challenges on the defensive side. Anthony Davis failed to limit yokiki by single defense, and Adebayor was also miserable. The data shows that since the 2017-18 season, when Adebayo was against yokedge, yokedge hit 55.1 percent. This season, this figure is 60%. And Adebayor is already the only rival that the Heat can get. Other civil air defense yorkki and yorkki shot 11 in 14.
From the previous hand, when the Heat used Adebayor to defend yokiki, I didn’t like to block and replace it, nor did I like to use clamping. The pressure fell on Adebayor.
Can the Heat follow the Lakers and arrange loafers yorkki to let Adebayor rival Aron Gordon take charge of the defense sweep? In theory, it is certainly possible, but when it is implemented specifically, the Nuggets can be aimed at the loafers by hand and blocking and removing the loafers. Not relieve a garrison, yokedge’s solid cover can create a vacancy for the defender. Relieve a garrison, loafers will be named.
In the playoffs of this season, both jokiki and Murray directly scored 24.5 points through hand-in and block-out. This is the record of the two teams in the past five years. In the last round, the Lakers have used various defensive methods, but they are still hung in fancy style.
Can joint defense work?
Joint defense is a hot strike. They can switch back and forth between man-to-man, 3-2 joint defense, and 2-1 joint defense, and the defense is changeable. According to statistics, the heat is the team that likes to use joint defense most. In the playoffs in the past 15 years, the number of joint defense of the Heat this season ranks second, and the first place is the hot fire in 2020.
The heat can eliminate bucks and Celts. One of the main reasons is that joint defense is powerful. Fight the Bucks, when the heat uses joint defense, they lose only 0.95 points per round. However, when hot people are eyeing people, they lose 1.14 points per round. For Celtics, these two data are 0.90 points and 1.16 points respectively. The difference between the effect of joint defense and human-to-human targeting for heat Fire is clear at a glance.
The Celtics couldn’t break the joint defense because they were only 8 out of the 46 rounds of the Joint Defense round, with a hit rate of only. The Nuggets are not Celtics. The Nuggets hit 38.6 percent in the playoffs. The players in multiple roles are right in three points. The small PROTONIC with a high overwhelming advantage will be the key to this round. Yorkich is not Horford either. His CIC, three points and strategy are powerful tools to break the joint defense. This season, the Nuggets scored up to 1.21 points per round when they met the joint defense. In the regular season, when the Nuggets met with the hot joint defense, yokiki was there for the 9 rounds, and the Nuggets scored 15 points.
How does Murray break through the Heat defense line?
In the first three rounds, Murray did not encounter targeted defense, but on the one hand, Murray was very good at using block and tear to transfer excellent defenders like Vanderbilt from himself. On the other hand, Murray faced Davis, james played a helpless super-God performance relieve a garrison. The rest of the defenders were either shorter than him, or the defense was too soft. Murray used the shield to split and the back attack to hit the Super High Output.
But with the heat, Murray will face new challenges. Martin and Strous are both 1.96 meters tall and Butler is 2.01 meters tall. Murray with a height of 1.93 meters is very difficult to eat again. What he can use is Vincent and Lowry, and these two are rarely present at the same time. If the heat uses joint defense to protect defensive weaknesses, can Murray break the Heat defense line?
In the playoffs of this season, Murray scored 1.25 points per round and ranked the first in the league. Murray also had a strike against the joint defense. He shot 57 out of the 102 shots with a hit rate of 55.9 percent.
“Jimmy in the playoffs” was terrible, but “Murray in the playoffs” was also terrible. His average score in the playoffs was 8.5 points more than that in the regular season, ranking first in NBA history.
Butler suffered
Butler is not afraid of any type of defender psychologically, but from the comparison of defensive effects, the type of figure and athletic ability above Butler can usually cause him more trouble than those short defenders. There is such a defender Gordon in the Nuggets.
In the last three seasons, when Gordon defended Butler, Butler scored 11.4 points in 100 rounds, while he also scored 17.9 points in 100 rounds against other defenders (at least 100 matches). Butler’s effective hit rate against Gordon is only 26%, while the lowest hit rate against others is 35%.
Of course, Butler is used to controlling the rhythm and constantly uses block and tear to make the most favorable counterposition for him. He is not keen to fight hard with Gordon. In this way, pop and Murray, Brown who rotates time, especially Murray, may become Butler’s key naming targets. What is worth paying attention to is whether Butler can name yokki. So far in the playoffs, few people have really taken advantage of yokki’s so-called weakness of blocking and dismantling.
Jumper randomness
The randomness of jump shots is the most popular point for the outside world to question the heat. “when the Heat feels bad, it will be gone” is the consensus of many people. But now, the heat is in the final.
The outside world questioned the heat based on the performance of the heat regular season. The heat can be understood. The heat hit 34.4 percent in the regular season, ranking 27th, but the playoffs reached 39 percent. The heat has shot at least 50% of the three points in four games, and there are only three in the regular season. Of course, you can say that the heat is super-capable, but you can also say that the heat has found the hand feeling at the right time.
In the regular season, the Heat scored 1.01 points in each jump shot and ranked 23rd in the league. Such a prospective star could not make any opponent timid. But in the playoffs, this data rose to 1.09 points and ranked second. In the first place, it was the rival nuggets in the heat finals.
Martin is the best embodiment of the randomness of the hot jump shot. He scored 1.36 points in each jump shot in the playoffs, ranking second over Booker and Murray. In the finals, can Martin still keep a hot feel?
Battle of rhythm
The Nuggets and the Heat are not famous for their fast pace, but the conversion attack is still a key link for them. They have different ways to start the conversion attack.
The heat advocates using steals to create counterattack opportunities, and the hot fire in the playoffs will be ranked the first by 19.3 points with opponent mistakes.
The Nuggets are good at protecting the first time after defensive rebound. The Nuggets scored 16.6 points in the average fast attack field and ranked second.
The game between the stars and the manager is naturally worthy of attention, but the details of control mistakes, rebound protection and retreat also need special attention from the two teams.
On paper, a lot of content is predictable, but the beauty of the playoffs lies in those unpredictability. For example, will Taylor-Croal return to fire? If he returns Croal, will he be able to return to the King or drag down the team like Nelson, who was magic in the finals that year?