The Celts have one of the largest data analysis teams in the league. For two consecutive years, the Celts have tried to defeat the enemy with the help of advanced data models.
In the 2022 finals, the data model told the Celts that “the strong three points won’t kill the dead”. The Celts chose to challenge Stephen Curry to cast three points, and the result achieved Curry’s performance.
In the Eastern Final of 2023, the data model told the Celts that “the middle distance attack won’t kill people”. The Celts were “taught to be human” by Jimmy Butler for two consecutive games “, in the two games, 40 middle shots were shot by the heat.
Under large samples, the conclusions drawn by the high-order data model have strong reference value, and some conclusions can be called “basketball law”. However, under the small sample competition system of the playoffs, high-order data models may be hit at any time. In the playoffs this season, the heat is crazily destroying data models and breaking the conventional cognition.
The Heat entered the playoffs with the eighth in the east but eliminated the Bucks and Knicks all the way down the road. Now it still returns to Miami with two away scores of 2-0 in the Eastern final, which made everyone unexpected. This powerful unpredictability is exactly the charm of the playoffs.
In the regular season, the attack efficiency of the heat was only ranked 25th. The five teams that were more inefficient than the Heat were all Lotto teams, and their 100 rounds scored only 113 points. The heat attack efficiency declined, one of the major reasons is that the three-point projection level plummeted, and the three-point hit rate was only the 27th. Last season, when the heat hit the 1st in the east, their third hit rate was% first in the league and the 10th in the League of offensive efficiency.
In the first round of the playoffs, who dares to imagine that such a heat can shoot the stag with three points, complete the reversal again and again, and finally realize the black eight miracle? And it was still under the premise that Taylor-Croal was injured after only one game and Oladipo was reimbursed after only two games. You know, the regular season Croal and Oladipo both scored 4.7 points, accounting for 39% of the Heat team.
In the 5 games of the series, 15.4 three points were shot in the hot fire field, and the three-point hit rate was as high as 45%. Even Butler shot 12 three points with a three-point hit rate of%. When the heat blows, who can the Bucks reason?
To a large extent, hot Fire won the “fluctuation of shooting hand feeling” in data analysis. John Hollinger, a data analysis expert who once served as a grizzly senior executive, believed that hot fire’s crazy shooting was the key to winning, but this feeling is too crazy and completely unsustainable.
Hollinger’s point of view is very representative. When interpreting the heat, a Scout also said: “The heat has experienced a strange season. Their three points in the regular season are obviously very bad, but the playoffs are very good, what should they do if their three-point feel returns to normal?”
In the eastern semi-finals of the Knicks, the three-point feeling of the heat was indeed as “returning to the normal value” as the data analysis experts said, and the law of conservation of character was fulfilled. Due to injuries and conditions, Butler’s performance in the second round did not burst as well as that in the first round, and the field goal percentage dropped. But in this round, the Heat won the series by defense.
The Knicks are the third team in the League of offensive efficiency in the regular season, but the Heat no longer makes Butler’s opponent Brunson in large numbers by aiming at the space problem of Josh Hart, but more acting as a defender and other routines took the Knicks. The strong defensive discipline and Spolestra’s varied response were all covered up by the Heat’s first round of feeling too against the sky before. The heat proves that they can win even if they don’t feel against the sky.
The most noteworthy thing is that in the first two games of the Eastern finals, the Heat defeated the opponent in different ways. In the first game, the Heat hit an offensive efficiency of 126.8 points, with a hit rate of 64% in the 31 shots of 16 in downtown and 14 shots of 9 in the long-distance two-point shots. The heat all led the regular season sharply, especially the long-distance two-point goal. Their average season is only 42%, which is exactly on the league average.
In the data model of “shooting quality”, the estimated effective hit rate of hot fire is only 50% after calculating various indexes such as shooting position, defender distance and shooting difficulty, however, their actual effective hit rate is as high as 63.5%, which is 13.5% higher. In contrast, the expected effective hit rate of the Celts in the first game was 57%, and the Celts cast an actual effective hit rate of 58%.
This is another game in which the Heat deducts the “fluctuation of shooting hand feeling” to the extreme. In the cold model without emotional factors, the performance of the heat belongs to the category of “super-level play. Because of this, the prospect of the second heat is not optimistic. When the hot three points and long distance two points feel down, what should the hot fire do?
The Heat gave the answer. In this campaign, the output and efficiency of the hot three-pointer 26 shot 9 dropped sharply. The hit rate of the heat long-distance two-point goal was only 42.9%, which returned to the level of the regular season.
But the Heat still won. Where is the win?
The heat is different from the Celts who pursue the lame version of Magic Ball. They pursue the “fixed recruitment”. The magic ball of the peak rocket is to hit the basket, make a foul, and shoot three-point axe. The lame version of Celtic magic ball lacks this link under the high frequency attack basket and can only rely heavily on three points. When the Celts, who were among the top three points in the regular season, fell into the curse of “The volatility of shooting hand feeling”, the Heat continued its fire by turning over the jump shot against Butler’s long-distance medium and casting area.
However, in data analysis, CIC, like low singles, is regarded as the most inefficient attack method. Butler’s attacks are unreasonable, but they can enter. Tatum and Brown should have helped Celtics avoid the defects of magic ball, but they disappointed the team.
The Heat won not only at this point. In conventional cognition, Duncan Robinson is not good at defense and does not deserve to play. Most of this season, spoolstra does not like to use Robinson. But in the first round of the playoffs, Robinson shot 14 points in 5 games. Today, Robinson’s substitute hit three points on the stage, and also cooperated with Adebayor for several times.
The Heat pulled a lot of details when the three points and the CIC felt bad. They controlled the error rate at 11.6 by discipline, and a large number of guards and defense restricted the Celtics’s attack, he also robbed 34.7% of the offensive rebound when the height was insufficient. In the end, the Heat won 6 points, and this advantage was picked out by them at 1.1 points.
In the end, as the data analysis experts who invented the data model said, no model is perfect, and all data models can only play a reference value. After all, the game is played by players.
The heat also proves once again that the addition of mental attributes cannot be measured by any data model. When the Heat fell behind two digits in a row, the reversal was completed. When Butler was provoked by Grant Williams, the current seven shots only entered one gab-Vincent’s life and death moment hit the retreat and hit the middle shot, when the Adebayor crowd who had only grabbed one offensive backboard jumped up and took off the offensive backboard, the power of spiritual attribute completely surpassed rationality at those moments.
These unpredictability and the performance of subversion are the charm of the playoffs.